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KFF projects average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027. The increase applies to people who keep those plans; shopping during open enrollment may help them find a lower-cost option. President Donald Trump has claimed his administration secured lower drug prices, but what beneficiaries pay varies by medicine and insurance coverage.
Average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans are projected to rise 50% in 2027, from $34 to $51, according to a new KFF analysis. The increase applies to people who stay in their current plans: beneficiaries may find lower premiums by switching during open enrollment, even as President Donald Trump claims his administration has brought down medicine prices.
KFF found that about 10.4 million people—76% of enrollees in stand-alone drug plans who do not receive low-income subsidies—would pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they kept their current plan. That includes 4.1 million people in zero-premium plans, because KFF found no such plans would be available next year. The figures are projections, not a guarantee of what any individual beneficiary will pay.
Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, switched plans after receiving notice that the monthly premium for his AARP-UnitedHealthcare drug plan would rise from $39.60 in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. He said he found a Humana plan with similar benefits for $19.30 a month. Scott estimated the change would save him about $1,000 next year and said he was concerned that other seniors might not compare plans.
Premiums are only one part of the projected costs. KFF estimates the average annual drug deductible for stand-alone plans will rise to $643 in 2027, from $540 in 2026. For Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage, the projected average deductible rises to $489 from $360. KFF also found most enrollees with drug coverage will face coinsurance rather than fixed copayments, meaning their share can vary with a drug’s price.
Plan Choices Could Change Drug Bills
The projected increase could affect household budgets for millions of people who buy stand-alone Medicare drug coverage. KFF says beneficiaries can avoid the average premium increase if they switch to a lower-cost plan, but that requires comparing options and checking whether a new plan covers the medicines they use. Scott’s experience illustrates that a lower premium may be available, but does not establish that every enrollee can find a plan with equivalent coverage at a lower total cost.
The change also comes as drug affordability is a political issue. Trump touted his administration’s work on medicine prices at an Ohio campaign rally on Oct. 28, saying the United States had moved from the highest drug prices to the lowest. That is his claim; KFF’s premium analysis measures insurance plan costs, not the administration’s overall effect on manufacturers’ drug prices. What a person pays depends on the medicines needed and their coverage, and a plan premium alone does not show total out-of-pocket spending.
Costs are projected to rise less for people who get drug coverage through Medicare Advantage plans. KFF estimates their average monthly drug premium component will be $9 in 2027, an increase of less than $2. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries use Medicare Advantage, according to the report; nearly 25 million people are enrolled in stand-alone drug plans, while about 31 million receive drug coverage through Medicare Advantage.
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One possible factor identified by KFF is the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ decision in July to end early a three-year pilot subsidy program. The program paid subsidies to stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026, but was ended after two years. KFF said the decision could contribute to higher premiums in 2027. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has described the program as an insurance industry bailout.
KFF’s projection differs from CMS’ estimate of a much smaller change: an increase in the national average premium from $35 to $36, based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and suggested the agency may have assumed beneficiaries would switch to lower-cost plans. CMS had not immediately responded to KFF Health News’ request for comment, according to the report.
The two estimates should not be treated as identical measures without more detail about their methods and assumptions. KFF’s figures describe projected costs for people who remain in stand-alone plans, while it said CMS’ estimate may account for people changing plans. The KFF analysis was reported by KFF Health News, which is part of the health information nonprofit KFF.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment.”
— Juliette Cubanski, KFF vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy
Different Forecasts, Unsettled Costs
The precise increase an individual will face depends on their plan choice and coverage. KFF’s $34-to-$51 average is a projection, and it does not mean every stand-alone plan will raise its premium by 50%. The report says people may be able to find cheaper plans, but the available choices and coverage details vary.
The gap between KFF’s estimate and CMS’ $1 projection remains unresolved in the source material. CMS had not responded to a request for comment, and KFF said the agency had not explained how it calculated its estimate. It is also unclear how much of the projected premium change is attributable to ending the subsidy pilot rather than other plan or market factors.
Neither the premium averages nor the campaign claim alone establishes what beneficiaries will pay for all their medicines in 2027. Individual drug needs, deductibles, coinsurance and plan coverage can change total costs. The source provides no final enrollment-year totals or comprehensive comparison of those out-of-pocket expenses.
Compare Plans Before Dec. 7
Medicare’s open enrollment period runs through Dec. 7. People with stand-alone drug plans can review next year’s premiums, deductibles and coverage for their medicines, then compare alternatives before deciding whether to keep or change plans. Scott’s account shows one person’s result, not a guarantee of savings for everyone.
More detail could clarify the difference between KFF’s projection and CMS’ estimate, including CMS’ calculation method and whether its forecast assumes plan switching. The 2027 premium and cost figures discussed here remain projections; what beneficiaries ultimately pay will depend on the plans they select and the medicines and benefits they use.
Key Questions
KFF projects the average monthly premium will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, a 50% increase. The projection does not mean every plan or enrollee will see the same change.
KFF says beneficiaries may avoid the average increase by switching to a lower-cost plan during open enrollment. They should compare premiums and other plan details, including coverage for their medicines, because a lower premium does not by itself show the total cost will be lower.
When does Medicare open enrollment end?
The open enrollment period described in the report runs through Dec. 7. Beneficiaries can review plan options and make changes during that period.
No. KFF estimates the average monthly drug premium component for Medicare Advantage plans will be $9 in 2027, an increase of less than $2. The analysis also projects higher average deductibles for those plans.
Why do KFF and CMS have different premium estimates?
KFF projects a rise from $34 to $51 for stand-alone plans, while CMS estimated the national average would move from $35 to $36. KFF said CMS had not explained its calculation and suggested it may have assumed people would switch to cheaper plans. The difference had not been resolved in the report.
Source: kffhealthnews.org
